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    经济经纬 2017 Issue (4) :129-134
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    中国居民汽车与住房消费是替代还是互补?——基于面板可变系数模型的研究
    刘耀彬1,2,付艳琴2
    1.南昌大学 中国中部经济社会发展研究中心,江西 南昌 330031;
2.南昌大学 经济管理学院,江西 南昌 330031
    Is It Substitution or Complementation Between Car Purchasing and Housing Consumption in China?——Based on Panel Variable Coefficient Model
     LIU Yao-bin1,2, FU Yan-qin2
    1.Research Center of the Central China Economic and Social Development, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China;
2.School of Economics and Management, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China
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摘要 耐用品与非耐用品间存在一定程度的消费替代,但耐用品之间的消费是替代还是互补关系却还未有定论。据我国房价与私家车保有量的统计数据对比显示,二者之间存在同步增长的特征,且省份之间还存在区域差异。因此,在利用效用函数构建包含房价与汽车消费的理论模型的基础上,采用面板可变系数模型对1997—2014年间我国31个省份居民房价与私家车保有量之间的关系进行实证分析。结果发现(1)耐用品与耐用品之间存在着有条件下的替代关系,该条件依赖替代参数ρ变化而变化;(2)我国汽车与住房消费存在着替代关系,且主要替代对象集中表现为居民住宅消费;(3)不同地区之间汽车对住房的消费替代具有微弱的区域差异,但这种区域差异分布特征未形成规律;(4)汽车与住房消费的替代强度随着时间推移呈现出上升态势,且消费替代强度整体上逐年增强。由此,提出应适当抑制房价以协调住房与汽车市场的相关政策建议。
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刘耀彬
付艳琴
关键词私家车   房价   替代关系   可变系数     
Abstract: There is a consumption substitution between durable and nondurable goods, but whether the relationship among durable goods is substitution or complementation has not been finalized yet. The housing price and private car ownership statistics of China show that there is synchronization growth between them, with regional differences among provinces. Through the establishment of the mathematical model including car and housing consumption based on Utility Function, we made the empirical analysis of the connection between housing price and private cars ownership during 1997—2014 according to the panel variable coefficient model.The results indicate that: (1) Among durable goods there are substitution relationships under different conditions, which change with the substitution parameter ρ; (2) There exists substitution relation between automobile and housing consumption, and the main substitute objects concentrate on residential consumption; (3) There is a slight regional difference in the substitution of house consumption by car purchasing between different regions, but the regional differences in distribution characteristics are not regular; (4) The substitution intensity shows an upward trend with time, increasing year by year on the whole. Therefore, it is proposed that housing prices should be appropriately restrained in order to coordinate the housing and automobile market.
KeywordsPrivate Car   Housing Price   Substitution Relation   Variable Coefficient     
收稿日期 2017-07-21; 接受日期 2017-07-21;
基金资助:国家社会科学基金重点项目(2015AZD070)
作者简介: 刘耀彬(1970— ),男,湖北麻城人,教授,博士生导师,教育部“长江学者”特聘教授,主要从事区域与产业经济管理研究;付艳琴(1994— ),女,江西赣州人,硕士研究生,主要从事区域与产业经济管理研究。
引用本文:   
刘耀彬,付艳琴.中国居民汽车与住房消费是替代还是互补?——基于面板可变系数模型的研究[J].  经济经纬, 2017,4: 129-134
LIU Yao-bin, FU Yan-qin.Is It Substitution or Complementation Between Car Purchasing and Housing Consumption in China?——Based on Panel Variable Coefficient Model[J]  Economic Survey, 2017,V34(4): 129-134
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